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• A Publisher Faces The Following Demand Schedule For The Next Novel
• A Publisher Faces The Following Demand Schedule For The Next Novel

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Today I will weave together three seemingly unrelated stories to make a point about a trend I think is often overlooked in the media. The first quarter earnings release of Tesla revealed the company sold $272 million worth of bitcoin holdings. Musk had done so to test the market’s liquidity, said his CEO, Elon Musk.

First, Tesla’s Q1 earnings release revealed that the company sold $272 million worth of its bitcoin holdings in the first quarter. According to its CEO, Elon Musk, it did so to test the market’s liquidity. Lastly, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke about the macroeconomic environment, holding firm to the expectation of 2% inflation over the next few years.How do these three stories relate to one another?

Second, crypto lender Genesis Trading (a subsidiary of DCG, which is also the parent of CoinDesk) published its Q1 2021 report, which showed that the amount of loans outstanding broke through $9 billion, an increase of 136% from the previous quarter.

You’re reading Crypto Long & Short, a newsletter that looks closely at the forces driving cryptocurrency markets. Authored by CoinDesk’s head of research, Noelle Acheson, it goes out every Sunday and offers a recap of the week – with insights and analysis – from a professional investor’s point of view. You can subscribe here.

Third, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke about the macroeconomic environment, holding firm to the expectation of an average of 2% inflation over the next few years.

What do these three stories have to do with one another? The answer lies in looking through the growing use of bitcoin as a reserve asset on corporate balance sheets to why companies want to do so today, and why they are likely to want to do so in years to come.

In February, the company announced the purchase of a $1.5 billion bitcoin.s

Before we bring in this week’s narratives, let’s refresh the balance sheet asset story.

Companies investing in bitcoin as a reserve asset have usually cited value protection as the main reason. Bitcoin will hold its purchasing power against the inevitable debasement of fiat, the argument goes. Since corporate treasury’s priority is ensuring the business has the funds it needs for operations and strategic investment, today as well as in the future, some advocates argue that bitcoin is an ideal treasury asset, even though the volatility is a concern.

With Tesla’s move, other companies will be reassured that liquidity risk need not be a major concern. And the $101 million contribution to the bottom line also sends a powerful message. MicroStrategy kicked this off last August by putting all of its corporate treasury into bitcoin; the firm has continually added to its holdings, even raising capital to do so. In February, it held an event to educate other companies on the advantages and logistics that was reportedly attended by over 8,000 interested parties. Other firms making bitcoin reserve allocations include Square, Aker and Meitu, and this week South Korean-Japanese video game publisher Nexon revealed a $100 million bitcoin purchase (equal to approximately 2% of its cash and cash equivalents).

A Publisher Faces The Following Demand Schedule For The Next Novel

The company doesn’t have to go that far – even a modest allocation to cryptocurrency can continue to value core business while providing a buffer when profits falter.Tap: Genesis’ loan book saw USD and stablecoin loans more than double over the quarter. At present, the persistent basis trade opportunities in the bitcoin futures market mainly fuel demand for this type of loan. The company did not disappoint: in February, it announced a $1.5 billion bitcoin purchase. Its Q1 2021 earnings released this week showed that the company sold approximately 10% of its holdings for $272 million. Musk explained on Twitter that this was to “test the market’s liquidity.”

Investors may have initial concerns about the long-term value of cash and cash equivalents. An additional boost is likely to come from the relatively easy access to capital and equity products that are not tied to the economic cycle.Inflation expectationsIf Powell says something upbeat about inflation later, that'll continue. With inflation running consistently below the target rate of 2%, Powell recognized that it would be permissible to keep inflation above that level for some time. For instance, market expectations for inflation broke through 2.4% for the first time in over eight years. This is alarming mainly because of the likelihood that prices will fall even more than the market anticipates.

As a result, corporate treasurers are likely to be scrambling to find ways to protect assets from what MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor calls the 'melting ice cube' effect if inflation sticks above 2% for several years. With Powell’s confirmation that quantitative easing will continue for the foreseeable future, further debasement fears could be heightened. These trends are more likely to encourage treasurers to place at least a portion of their corporate reserves into bitcoin. The deeper takeaway is bitcoin's potential for use as collateral is just getting started. The Genesis report exemplifies this growth as well. It's not clear exactly how much bitcoin constitutes that collateral, but we can assume that it's the bulk. Companies don’t have to go that far – with even a modest allocation to bitcoin, they can maintain their core business but put in place a potential buffer when earnings look weak.

According to my colleague Brady Dale, the market cap of decentralized finance tokens has reached an all-time high of $120 billion; this represents lending and other financial applications.

Now, on to Genesis’ loan book, which saw USD and stablecoin loans more than double over the quarter. Demand for this type of loan is for now fueled mainly by the persistent basis trade opportunity in the bitcoin futures market. Going forward, it’s likely to be powered by a growing understanding of the efficiency of bitcoin as collateral, and the increasing amount of bitcoin ready to be used as collateral.

However, bitcoin could start to be seen as an intriguing collateral alternative for overnight loans to corporations that operate in multiple currencies, one that will also boost earnings when necessary.

Moreover, lenders could be drawn in by the bearer asset nature of the collateral in addition to its higher yield. Also, crypto investors aspire to hold an asset that won’t be devalued by an expanding monetary supply and mounting inflation. This is already being begun by the crypto industry’s main lending service.

We might even see decentralized lending services start to offer repo-like facilities. Banks, traditionally key participants in repo markets, are already becoming involved in crypto assets. Crypto assets however bring new types of risk to a fragile equation, and the notion of bitcoin as collateral has many hurdles to overcome before it can make a meaningful difference in today's financial ecosystem.

What U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman If even JPMorgan is now embracing crypto, the narrative goes, then surely institutional investors will be able to buy in en masse. The truth is much harder to make out. These funds are limited to private wealth clients who face fewer requirements than pension funds and insurance companies. It will broaden participation, but it does not get bitcoin 'mainstream.' By “actively managed,” I assume that they will also pursue derivative and cash allocation strategies in an effort to beat the bitcoin market.

A Publisher Faces The Following Demand Schedule For The Next Novel

Some funds are passive: they buy bitcoin, and a fund’s value closely tracks its value. So the prospect of inflation running above 2% for several years is likely to send corporate treasurers scurrying to find ways to protect assets from what MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor calls the “melting ice cube” effect. When JPMorgan is ready to roll out this product, it will do so after careful planning and months of deliberation.

We are seeing growth in interest from institutional and large investors, which points towards more strong inflows.Chain Links U.S. Bank just announced that they will launch a new cryptocurrency custody product soon in partnership with an unnamed sub-custodian. NYDIG also announced that it has been selected to oversee New York’s bitcoin ETF (if approved by regulators).

TAKEAWAY: These are heavy-duty services that aren't just spun up at random – meaning U.S. Bank has been working on this for quite some time.

Many other traditional financial institutions are probably doing the same in secret.

It's going to be less likely for traditional banks to be active in crypto now than they were two years ago. Speaking of U.S. Bank, it contributed alongside State Street and other investors to a $30 million financing round for Securrency. Here we see two big banks investing in a company that combines traditional financial services with crypto holdings. Read what you want into it ...Genesis Trading (a subsidiary of DCG, which is parent of CoinDesk) published its Q1 2021 report this week, which shows a staggering 136% increase in active loans to over $9 billion. And, as my colleague Brady Dale reported this week, the total market capitalization of decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens, which represent lending and other financial applications, has broken through $120 billion to reach an all-time high. Wrapped bitcoin, an Ethereum-based token 100% backed by bitcoin that was created to facilitate the cryptocurrency’s use as collateral in DeFi applications, reached an all-time market cap high of $9.5 billion two weeks ago.

But all of this could end up being dwarfed by the use of bitcoin as a collateral asset in bilateral repo transactions. The repo market, in which corporations can use their liquid asset holdings to borrow short-term cash for working capital needs and pledge as collateral “safe” securities such as U.S. Treasurys, was estimated to be around $4.1 trillion at the end of last year, with around $1.3 trillion of that attributable to nonbank and non-securities dealer firms.

In the past decade, exchanges and services have sprang up ad hoc, resulting in no coordination, so there is no industrywide standard for connectivity. Time and money will get them, but there is no “central body” to decide what standards should be. Van Eck’s proposed bitcoin ETF has been delayed until at least June 17 by the SEC. It has been speculated that the approval of a bitcoin ETF in the US is likely in the near future, but given the success of bitcoin and ether ETFs in the Canadian market and Gary Gensler’s familiarity with crypto, this delay is not a surprise. One bill passed by German parliament last week, if approved by the Bundesrat, is expected to take effect July 1 if approved by the Federal Law Office. It allows wealth and institutional investment fund managers to invest up to 20% of their portfolio in crypto.

TakeAway: According to the report, this could allow up to $425 billion to enter the crypto market. The fact that not all funds would take advantage of this option makes it less likely that all funds would invest up to the maximum. Additionally, investors interested in crypto exposure have plenty of choices through the numerous crypto-based funds that are currently traded on exchanges. Although this bill sets the stage for crypto allocations in professional diversified funds, the chance of mainstream acceptance may be increased considerably.

Crypto assets do bring a different type of risk to a fragile equation, however, and the concept of bitcoin as collateral has many hurdles to overcome before it can make a meaningful difference in today’s financial ecosystem. Using three seemingly unrelated announcements from the past week and X-raying trends, I believe we are largely overlooking a trend.

JPMorgan Joins the Crypto Market

JPMorgan Chase is preparing to offer an actively managed bitcoin fund to its private wealth clients, possibly as soon as this summer, according to sources.

Second, the $101 million it added to the company’s quarterly profits didn’t hurt either. This monthly newsletter, written by CoinDesk’s research department chief, Noelle Acheson, goes out every Sunday and gives a comprehensive daybook of the week, along with insights and analysis – from a professional investor’s perspective.

The third item is U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks about the macroeconomic environment, in which he revised his expectation for an average rate of 2% inflation over the next several years.What are the similarities between the three stories?

1. The answer lies in examining the reasons behind companies using bitcoin as a reserve asset on their balance sheets, and why they are likely to want to do so in the future.If even JPMorgan is now embracing crypto, the narrative goes, then surely institutional investors will be able to buy in en masse. The truth is much harder to make out. These funds are limited to private wealth clients who face fewer requirements than pension funds and insurance companies.s Typically, companies investing in bitcoin as a reserve asset have cited value protection as the primary reason. It's argued that Bitcoin will never debase as fiat debases.
2. Having an entire treasury set up in bitcoin last August, software company MicroStrategy has continued building its holdings, raising capital to do so. This system continues today, with the majority of the firm’s funds dedicated to treasury. It held an event in February in an effort to educate other companies regarding its advantages and logistics, attended by over 800 people. Also making bitcoin reserves are Square, Aker and Meitu, while South Korean-Japanese video game publisher Nexon announced its $200 million bitcoin deposit at the end of February.
3. The main takeaway here, however, is that a large bank like JPMorgan would not make a decision to spin up a product like this without serious consideration, especially in light of Dimon’s previous comments. As a result of the public debate between CEO Elon Musk and MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, expectations soared that Tesla would soon join the ranks. It didn’t disappoint: it announced its bitcoin purchase in February.

Chain Links

U.S. Bank (part of U.S. Bancorp, the fifth-largest banking institution in the U.S.) announced this week that it will offer a new cryptocurrency custody product in partnership with an unnamed sub-custodian. Musk said on Twitter that the test was to test the liquidity of the market. TAKEAWAY: These are heavy-duty services, which aren’t spun up at a moment’s notice – which means that U.S. Bank has been working on this for some time. In addition, liquidity was present in the way into the deal; we think the $1.5 billion purchase was carried out cautiously over the course of a few weeks. Pretty soon the list of traditional banks not involved in crypto will be shorter than the list of those that are.

Speaking of U.S. Bank, it participated along withState Street and other investors in a $30 million funding round for institutional cryptocurrency infrastructure firm Securrency. TAKEAWAY: Here we have two significant legacy financial institutions investing in a business that connects traditional services with crypto markets. This move signals that Tesla has created a “cash equivalent” through which the value is protected and profits can be made.

Genesis Trading (a subsidiary of DCG, which is also the parent of CoinDesk) published its Q1 2021 report this week, which shows a staggering 136% growth in active loans to over $9 billion. TAKEAWAY: One of the many intriguing data points in this report is the growth of almost 400% in outstanding ether loans, largely driven by yield and arbitrage opportunities in decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. At present, demand for this type of loan is driven by persistent basis trades in the bitcoin futures market.

Coinbase has delayed the launch of trading on stablecoin tether (USDT) until next month, citing an ongoing issue with its professional platform’s API. TAKEAWAY: This is much more than just a frustrating tech glitch: it’s a reminder of the crypto market’s retail-first origin. In Genesis, the crypto industry demonstrated that a Bitcoin position is a viable means of raising working capital without creating an taxable event, by acting as collateral for a fiat loan. This further supports the case for bitcoin as a treasury asset. Initial interest may result from concerns about the long-term value of cash and cash equivalents.

The SEChas pushed back making a decision on VanEck’s proposed bitcoin ETF to at least June 17. TAKEAWAY: While many have speculated that a bitcoin ETF approval is likely in the U.S. in the near future, given the success of bitcoin and ether ETFs in the Canadian market and given Chairman Gary Gensler’s familiarity with the crypto markets, this delay is not a surprise. It is indeed alarming that since inflation expectations, as shown by the 10-year breakeven rate, broke through 2.4% for the first time in eight years, this will further lower the real value of money than the market expected.

A bill approved by Germany’s parliament last week, expected to take effect on July 1 if approved by the Bundesrat, will allow wealth and institutional investment fund managers known as Spezialfonds to invest up to 20% of their portfolio in crypto. TAKEAWAY: According to the report, this would allow up to nearly $425 billion to move into the crypto market. As a result, the pool of bitcoin ready to be used as collateral will grow even further.This is the more pressing takeaway that bitcoin’s potential as collateral is just spreading out.Following the Genesis report, we have already seen significant growth in the crypto-backed lending industry. Although I didn’t get a breakdown of just how much of that collateral is bitcoin, it seems likely that it’s the largest chunk. However, this bill sets the scene for crypto allocations in professionally managed diversified funds, which could go a long way toward establishing mainstream acceptance.